With the announcement that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been infected with COVID 19 for the second time, concerns resurface if Mexico has enough institutions to survive the president’s absence. Especially considering the challenges of 2022 that the country will face.
The likelihood of an accident or health problem affecting López Obrador’s abilities has increased dramatically this week. Partly because the president’s public health record clearly indicates alarming comorbidities, raising the possibility that a second infection could leave a sequel. But it must also be recognized that the stress of governance affects one’s health, and the president still lacks the second half of his term—three years where the president has historically had less control—to govern. to increase difficulties. It is the last three years of government that “age” rulers, especially if they reach the second half of a six-year term with health problems.
But the president does not help himself and does not understand the importance of protecting his health for reasons of national security. During this week’s morning conference he admitted he has the flu and will take his COVID19 test. Hours later, after a meeting with the Secretaries of the Security Cabinet, he once again declared a positive result for COVID19, exposing his close friend.
But the relatively little security that Mexico’s president has during his visits, in addition to a disastrous agenda that will certainly worsen in the face of many electoral processes in the coming years, reminds us of the threats to the health of Andrés Manuel. Is.
And of course, the health and well-being of the President of Mexico should always be treated as a matter of national security, especially at a time when the open divide between the President and Morena’s close circle is perceived. There is no guarantee that if something happens to López Obrador, Mexico will have a smooth transition without political and economic instability.
In addition to the health of the President of Mexico, there are other security issues that could literally “blow up” this year. A particularly important challenge will be the ability of the Mexican government to control criminal organizations that have almost completely freed much of the country. Especially in the last two years, he has influenced the electoral process. This makes it easier to fuel their criminal activities, but also increases their influence in the formal economy. And if violent incidents are an indication of what will happen in 2022, we have to expect an increase in internal wars this year.
The president and his security cabinet will have to make tough decisions to confront criminal organizations, and at the same time, violence is on the rise in the country. Or simply and simply leave entire regions of the country and its inhabitants to be “ruled” by criminals.
And of course, not facing the territorial control exercised at this time by ten organizations such as the CJNG or CDS, and other criminal groups, fundamentally these will undoubtedly define the electoral processes and future rulers.
This leads us to the next big challenge for Mexico in 2022: the disastrous migration processes for the country by the millions of Mexicans and Central Americans who will try to cross into the United States – fleeing rampant violence in the country. Obviously, organized crime groups will be the beneficiaries of this great business of human trafficking.
And this scenario, where it is expected that criminal groups will have greater territorial control that favors their businesses, is expected to further increase the traffic of fentanyl in the United States. Difficulties with neighbor to the north will increase dramatically as the number of drug addicts but also deaths from fentanyl overdose in the United States increases. Friction between the two countries will increase not only because of the uncontrolled migrant flow through the two countries because of the humanitarian tragedy at the border, but also because of the almost impossible task of stopping the fentanyl trade.
And regardless of who is the president of Mexico or the United States, there is always the concern that a terrorist group, hostile to a neighbor, may decide to attempt to enter American soil through Mexican territory. could.
Given this panorama and the challenges that await Mexico, potentially until 2022, it is important that the health of the president is a priority when it comes to matters of national security.