This winter is going to be “extraordinarily difficult” for the NHS, warns England’s chief medical officer, as he acknowledges that “there are definitely some very important things that we need to know at the beginning of the cove Wrong. “
Professor Chris Whitty told delegates at the annual conference of the Royal College of GPs in Liverpool that although some things had gone wrong, it was a mistake to think that lessons from one epidemic would automatically apply to the next.
He warned of difficult months for the health service as it fights Cove 19, flu, other viruses and common winter problems such as trips and falls.
But he praised the GPs – who are currently discussing face-to-face appointments – for all their “excellent” hard work and professionalism over the past two years.
He said: “Considering where the Cowboys will go in the winter, well I think the winter as a whole, I have to say with regret that it will be extremely difficult for the NHS.
“Regardless, whether we have a relatively low but unusual amount of quail, or whether we actually have more in the winter.
“I think if you asked 100 modelers you would get more than 100 answers, just like how it would turn out.
“I think what we believe is at the top, (what) we would probably face if things went wrong last winter, except for the unusual escape change. , But suppose we don’t find anything that can actually escape our defense completely, I think the risks at the top are very small.
“But we can definitely go up. We’re only two to two times away from really serious pressure on the NHS and it’s already serious, but it’s going to be very difficult to deal with.”
“So the margin of error is very small.”
“Zero Cowid is a completely impossible dream this winter,” said Professor Whitty, adding that he hopes to be kept at a “relatively low level”.
On the flu, he said there is a lot of debate about whether there could be lower levels because people are still not mixing more, or the lack of natural immunity could lead to “really a serious increase”. It does not match the tension that affects Britain.
The expert said that when other viruses and winter health issues are added to the mix, people who care together with people who are delayed during epidemics are more likely to call the NHS “unusual.” Long order “faces.
He added: “I wish I could claim that the sun is shining and it will be great by Christmas, but sadly, I’m afraid it is not.”
Regarding the advice given during epidemics, Professor Whitty said: “I think the important thing about being a CMO is that it’s just another doctor’s job.”
He added: “We have to stick to what we need to talk about, which is medicine, public health, epidemics and don’t go too far in areas where we use the power of our position politically or otherwise. Can be used to make points, it’s not our job.
“I think our job is to be a doctor in a special role within the government.”
“Doctors really want the best for the people, especially in an epidemic,” he said, adding that “in fact, most political leaders want the best for the people.”
As CMO, he said his role is to present an ideology, “however undesirable, nonetheless unpleasant”, and “never shy away from giving clear professional advice”.
Asked what politicians mean when they say they are pursuing science, Professor Whitty said: “Well, in a good ideological world, there is a scientific stage where you go through and you are neutral. And magistically bring out the truth, and then you put your hands up. It’s up to the policy makers to turn it into a beautiful policy that then enforces something realistic.
“Of course it’s a little dirty. But I think it’s important that I don’t kill my professional colleagues in the political and policy arenas.
“I think they are in virtually all political parties – but the prime minister and the ministers in power clearly have a responsibility – they tried to understand the scientific advice, and then they tried to find out. How you can change the policy that works the most
“I know we can all agree or disagree with individual decisions, but I think it was a real effort, and it wasn’t just like I said in government, it was also true of the opposition.
“To begin with, I think there were a lot of competitive voices in the public arena and I think a lot of the political leaders who were listening had a hard time working on it.
“But I think what they noticed over time should be to find a central body of opinion.”
“Science moves forward, leads to new learning,” he said, adding that he would comment now and give an opinion that would prove to be wrong, as science moves forward and our understanding moves forward.
He added: “I’m sure I’m still giving advice, which I’ll see again in a year and say it was technically wrong, because we’ve learned things we didn’t know. ۔ “
Professor Whitty argued that “it was easy to take cheap shots” but that political parties and the media at large had “tried hard to understand what was being said”.
When asked when the next epidemic is coming, he replied, “I hope I’m too late to retire.”
But on the subject of the lessons learned, Professor Whitty said that the last major epidemic was HIV and that “if you try to handle HIV as you handle cod, it will obviously be devastating.” And on the other side.
“So I think what we should never do is assume that just because we have learned so many lessons from an epidemic, they will necessarily translate into the next.”
“And the last big epidemic I encountered was Ebola, which was basically a touch disease, again a very different set of ways to deal with it.”
He continued: “Certainly there are some very important things that we misunderstood at the beginning of the coed, based on the assumption that it would be something like the previous infection, and it didn’t happen, and it’s inevitable.”
Earlier this week, a report by MPs from the Science and Technology Committee and the Health and Social Care Committee said the UK’s epidemic preparedness was too focused on the flu, while ministers called for early 2020 lockdown measures. Waited too long to move forward.
At the onset of the epidemic, when Covid 19 appeared in China, MPs said Britain’s policy was to “accidentally and gradually approach” interventions such as social isolation, isolation and lockdown by mistake.
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