Three Years of Presidential Popularity – Tech Viral Tips

How has the popularity of Mexican presidents been during their first three years in office? I put together polls from Salinas to López Obrador to see what patterns are observed. I did this by calculating the annual approval average, which, of course, hides the variations seen throughout the year; But they do facilitate comparison by making the amount of data more manageable and focusing on the general trend. Based on that I derive the following aspects of the President’s popularity in the country.

1. Upward popularity trajectory. Carlos Salinas (1988–1994) and Ernesto Zedillo (1994–2000), both PRI affiliations, saw their popularity ratings rise in the first three years of their government. Salinas achieved 63, 72 and 77 percent approvals in its first, second and third years, respectively.

In the midst of the economic crisis, Zedillo’s average approval rating was only 37 percent in 1995, rising to 42 percent in the second year and 56 percent in the third, reflecting economic recovery and roughly matching the levels they would achieve. . After other presidents in the middle of his six-year term. Both Salinas and Zedillo were cases of rising popularity. The net growth from the first to third year was 14 points for Salinas and 19 points for Zedillo. Zedillo took longer to recover from his freshman year, but his recovery was proportionately more even.

2. Downward popularity trajectory. Unlike his PRI supporters, Enrique Pea Nieto (2012–2018) saw his approval rating decline, to 49 percent in his first year, 47 percent in his second, and 37 percent in his third. Pea Nieto is the only president whose popularity has declined. Looking at the annual average, between the first and third year, it lost 12 net approval points. It will still be less.

3. Stabilization Honeymoon Affairs. The trajectories in popularity of Vicente Fox (2000–2006) and AMLO (2018–2024) are very similar: both started with high popularity, which subsided in the second year and stabilized with majority support. Fox started with Honeymoon due to repatriation, the so-called “democratic bonus”, averaging 65 percent approval in its first year, dropping to 56 percent in its second year and 59 percent in its third.

For his part, López Obrador had a more lenient honeymoon in the first year, with an average approval rating of 71 percent; It fell to 62 per cent in the second year and stabilized at 61 per cent in the third year. In the middle of the six-year tenure, AMLO’s popularity is slightly higher than Fox’s at the time, but the Pan player dropped 6 points and the Moreno player 10 points in a net loss of popularity. Some think that AMLO may have lost more popularity given Pea’s background, but the Mexican was more the exception than the rule, and the trajectory of AMLO’s popularity so far is similar to that of Fox.

4. Stable trajectory. The popularity of Felipe Calderón (2006–2012) remained very stable during the first three years of his government: an average of 63 percent in his formative year, 63 percent in his second year, and 64 percent in his third. Variation of only one point. There was an international financial crisis, a pandemic and the war on organized crime, but the average approval levels per year were unchanged.

In popularity, AMLO is the president who started the most; But Salinas is the one that completed its highest first triad. Zedillo is the one who moves forward and Pea is the one who lags behind. Fox ranks second for highest initial approval and Calderon is second in third year.

Data shows that honeymoon in the country is more of an exception than a rule, but this has happened in cases of partisan choice in which PRIs are converted into Presidencies. So far the popularity trajectories of Fox and AMLO are very similar. We’ll have to wait for the second triennial to see if there’s a difference. For now, we’ll stay abreast of what the surveys indicate.

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