2022 will be a year of great political intensity in Mexico, the consequences of which can also affect the economy.
What will be some of the important processes that will take place during this year? What will be the balance with which President López Obrador will strike?
1.- Advice for the revocation of the mandate.
There are two basic scenarios regarding this topic. One of them implies a negotiated settlement of the discrepancies that have arisen between the INE and the Chairman.
The decision taken by the Federation of Judicial Power of the Electoral Tribunal of Federation (TEPJF) at its last session last year indicates that the INE is way to request new resources from the Ministry of Finance to streamline the process.
If the Treasury agrees to pay the appropriate amount, the difference will be settled.
But the scenario in which the Treasury declines the delivery of the requested resources and therefore confrontation continues, with uncertain outcome, cannot yet be ruled out.
Even in the first case, it is still pending to verify whether Morena had obtained the signature required by the Constitution.
If that happens, we will have a fuss over this issue in the first quarter and as long as it will.
If the required signatures are not there, the conflict between the executive and the INE can escalate and become more frontal.
I am confident that in any case, AMLO will take advantage of this process.
2.- State elections.
In the six states that have elections, the formal election campaign will begin between March and April. For now, there are signs that Morena may be the party that won the most reigns, but not as coercively as last year.
The appointment of their candidates caused differences and for now there are serious differences in Oaxaca and Durango.
Despite the disagreement, Morena could have a clear advantage over Quintana Roo, Hidalgo and Oaxaca. You can compete in Tamaulipas. In Durango you can even do this until the crack seen turns into a fracture. But in Aguascalientes this is much less likely.
Hence, the balance in favor of AMLO will be less pronounced than it was last year.
3.- Electricity reforms and other constitutional changes.
The road to power reform is not yet clear.
In this case, there are two scenarios. If you insist on approving the amendment to the terms sent, that is unlikely to happen, as the PRI will not vote in the Senate before the June elections and probably after them.
It would be a major defeat for the President.
The second is that substantial changes are accepted and a “decaffeinated” correction is made, which allows AMLO to say that it has achieved the change, but does not threaten existing investments or power supplies.
In such a situation, the President will also have to bear the cost.
It will also be important if a politico-electoral reform proposal is introduced this year, as well as the formal militarization of the National Guard.
In the current circumstances, it is very difficult to have a sum of votes to make the change the president wants, which will mean another defeat.
4.- The fight between the ‘covers’.
As Morena continues to lead the election of all voting intentions, the controversy between the candidates for the presidential candidacy will be of great relevance, especially the three that are already visible: Claudia Sheinbaum, Ricardo Monreal and Marcelo Ebrard.
This year’s political dynamism will be one of its fundamental elements in the competition between these heroes, which will have ramifications across all sectors and it is not yet clear how. Careless handling of these differences could mean a high cost for AMLO.
5.- Opposition and its dilemmas.
Finally, another important factor this year will be the likelihood of the opposition regrouping and the presence of figures emerging as candidates for the opposition coalition.
If it doesn’t, it will be one of AMLO’s great victories. If they perform, it could be their main losing battle this year.